Iowa District 18 voters taking dim view of Branstad's naked power grab; National Organization for Marriage isn't fooling voters

Public Policy Polling surveyed 878 likely District 18 voters from November 4th to 6th via automated telephone interviews. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. The poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.

(There is a special election in Iowa's District 18 because Iowa's Republican Governor, Terry Branstad, the Republican governor, shoved aside more than 12 qualified applicants for a high-paying post on a state board and instead offered the job to a moderate Democrat, Swati Dandekar, who happened to be a state senator from a district as friendly to Republicans as Democrats. The National Organization for Marriage has dumped 18,000 mailers into the district and is making over 23,000 robocalls to define the race as being over gay marriage and to gin up support for Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate over Liz Mathis, her democratic opponent.

Voters in the district are split right down the middle, 44/44, on whether they'd rather Democrats or Republicans had control of the State Senate. But Mathis is outrunning those numbers when it comes to how people are planning to vote on Tuesday.

     This election has been framed to some extent as a battle over gay marriage, but our poll suggests voters aren't seeing it that way. They're planning to vote for Mathis even as 46% of them say gay marriage should be illegal, compared to just 42% who think it should be legal. Although voters in the district may oppose gay marriage, only 11% say that issue is the most important factor guiding their vote compared to 86% who say it's something else. It's also worth noting that 66% of voters do support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 30% opposed to all legal recognition for same sex couples.
     If this election's not hinging on gay marriage, then what is making the difference here? Voters may be sending a message to Governor Terry Branstad. His approval rating in the district is only 39% with 42% disapproving of him. This special election is seen in some quarters as the product of a power grab by Branstad and if Mathis wins it could be indicative of an electorate that doesn't want to enhance his power. “This race is still close enough that it could go either way on Tuesday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it looks like Democrats will probably hold onto control of the Iowa State Senate and if that is the case it will be a reflection of dissatisfaction with Governor Branstad.”